Nov. 20 (Bloomberg) -- India, the world’s second-largest grower and consumer of rice, may import as much as 5 million metric tons next year as flooding compounds crop losses caused by drought earlier this year, a former official said. India, which lost 18 percent of its crop to drought in the harvest that began in September, may sustain more losses in the next harvest from January, Tejinder Narang, a commodity analyst and former director of state-owned agricultural trader PEC Ltd., said in a phone interview today from New Delhi. Output in the January harvest may drop to 12 million tons, from about 15 million tons a year earlier, because of losses caused by recent flooding in the country’s south, he said.

“The problem is the availability of stocks,” Narang said. “Because of flooding, crop estimates have declined.”  Rising imports by India will increase competition for overseas supplies and may push global prices higher as the Philippines, the world’s biggest buyer, advances purchases after storms wiped out 1.3 million tons of rice crops.

India hasn’t been a net rice importer for two decades, according to U.S. Department of Agriculture data. The country will export 1.5 million tons next year, compared with an average of 4.5 million tons a year from 2002 to 2008, USDA figures show.

Rice futures in Chicago and the regional benchmark export price in Thailand jumped to a record last year, as concern that there may be a shortage prompted countries including Vietnam and India to curb exports.

Declining production may lower India’s rice stockpiles to 950,000 tons, equal to four days of the nation’s needs, by October 2010 if the government doesn’t import, Narang said.

Indian government policy requires state food agencies to maintain a total stockpile of 5.2 million tons to ensure the nation’s food security, he added.

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By Luzi Ann Javier