local rice shortage is highly unlikely but exporters warn that the government should carefully manage its stocks, as world rice prices could rise in the second half of the year.

"It is fortunate that the government still has about 2.1 million tonnes left in its stockpile, which would help [serve] local rice demand," said Chookiat Ophaswongse, president of the Rice Exporters Association.

"But the government should carefully manage its existing stock to make sure that local consumers will not have to consume too much expensive rice, as world rice prices tend to rise more in the second half of the year."

Rice exports have risen strongly over the first two months of the year to an average of one million tonnes a month. The figure is expected to top one million tonnes in March.

Price rises have resulted in a loss of about US$200 per tonne to Thai exporters since January, said Mr Chookiat.

The good news is that prices for premium rice could reach a record $1,000 a tonne by the end of June, from about $900 now, as local exporters expect Iran and Nigeria to buy the commodity with revenue from rising oil prices.

"Some big buyers have been waiting for the prices to ease," Mr Chookiat said. "But that didn't happen. So they will have to buy at higher prices."

He expressed concern that the state rice stockpile would be affected if rice exports continue increasing above one million tonnes a month.

The government is therefore being urged to intervene by imposing minimum export prices to tighten the the screws on overseas shipments.

The Indian government recently introduced a minimum export price, at $900 per tonne for basmati rice and $650 for non-basmati grades.

"However, we believe such a measure to curb rising rice prices [in Thailand] is unlikely in the very near future, as the output of the second-crop rice would be fully released in the market over the next couple of months," Mr Chookiat said.

However, he ruled out banning exports or setting quotas.

He said Thailand was still capable of having a rice surplus. The country has annual rice production of about 19 million tonnes, 10 million tonnes of which are for local consumption and the rest for export.